Harley Rouda (D)
CA-48
- Trump For President:
- -1.7
- Last Election Margin:
- 7.1%
- Current Outlook:
- 7.1%
Claims that if we give Trump a wall, he’ll next want a moat with alligators. Supports medicare-for-all option.
2020 Strategy: Taking Back the House
Taking Back the House 2020
Six Presidents Re-Elected
Dwight D. Eisenhower
34th President
1953-1961
Richard M. Nixon
37th President
1969-1974
Ronald Reagan
40th President
1981-1989
Bill Clinton
42nd President
1993-2001
George W. Bush
43rd President
2001-2009
Barack Obama
44th President
2009-2017
Biggest Gains Were Under
Post WWII Uneleceted Incumbents
1948 Truman
Presidential
+75
Net Gain for Democrats
1964 Johnson
Presidential
+37
Net Gain for Democrats
2018 Trump
Mid-Term
+40
Net Gain for Democrats
Flip History
In 120 years, the House control has flipped 10 times. Nine times in mid term elections, plus two times when unelected incumbents were seeking a full second term.
40
The number of seats Democrats won in 2018.
18
The net number of seats Republicans must win to recapture control.
40
The number of seats Trump won in 2016 now held by Democrats
The Democratic Party Is at the Mercy of the Radical Left
Some Seats Will Be Harder To Get Back Than Others
Where We Begin
Republicans lost seven seats in California, we may win back two in the 2020 election. We lost an additional seven seats in affluent, highly educated suburban districts where Hillary had won.
Winning Where We Should Be
Most Republican seat held by a Democrat, Trump won it by 31 ponts. Democrat Colin Peterson, MN 7 defeated David Hughes, Rep MN 7 by only four points.
Colin Peterson, MN
District 7
David Hughes, Rep MN
District 7
Other Districts Without a 2018 Competative Republican
Dave Loebsack, IA
District 2
Cheri Bustos, IL
District 17
Sean Maloney, NY
District 17
Matt Cartwright, PA
District 8
Ron Kind, WI
District 3
If Trump is Doing Well
If Trump is doing well, we have the opportunity to reclaim the following seven seats.
Susan Wild, PA
District 7
Josh Harder, CA
District 10
Elissa Slotkin, MI
District 8
Andy Kim, NJ
District 3
Jeff Van Drew, NJ
District 2
Antonio Delgado, NY
District 19
Max Rose, NY
District 11
Our Best Bets
Trump won by double digits, where Democrats won by less than two points.
Tier 1 Target Races
U.S. House of Representatives 2020
Trump won by double digits, where Democrats won by less than two points. Below are 44 of the most vulnerable Democrat seats in 2020.
-
Tom O’Halleran (AZ-01)
-
Josh Harder (CA-10)
-
TJ Cox (CA-21)
-
Katie Hill (CA-25)
-
Gil Cisneros (CA-39)
-
Katie Porter (CA-45)
-
Harley Rouda (CA-48)
Harley Rouda (D)
-
Mike Levin (CA-49)
-
Jason Crow (CO-06)
-
Jahana Hayes (CT-05)
-
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell (FL-26)
-
Lucy McBath (GA-06)
Lucy McBath (D)
GA-06- Trump For President:
- 1.1
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.0%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.0%
A former flight attendant turned activist, her number one issue is more gun control.
-
Abby Finkenauer (IA-01)
-
Cindy Axne (IA-03)
Cindy Axne (D)
IA-03- Trump For President:
- 3.5
- Last Election Margin:
- 2.2%
- Current Outlook:
- 2.2%
Leader to expand Obamacare. Axne is endorsed by the radical pro-choice group NARAL and by ultra-liberal groups including MoveOn.org and the Feminist Majority PAC
-
Lauren Underwood (IL-14)
Lauren Underwood (D)
IL-14- Trump For President:
- 3.9
- Last Election Margin:
- 50%
- Current Outlook:
- 50%
Helping lead the campaign to allow transgender individuals serving in the armed forces.
-
Sharice Davids (KS-03)
-
Jared Golden (ME-02)
Jared Golden (D)
ME-02- Trump For President:
- 10.3
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.2%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.2%
Top 5 most vulnerable Democrats, Golden supports socialized single-payer health care.
-
Elissa Slotkin (MI-08)
Elissa Slotkin (D)
MI-08- Trump For President:
- 6.7
- Last Election Margin:
- 3.8%
- Current Outlook:
- 3.8%
Says she will “defend to my grave,” women’s and LGBTQ rights and pro choice.
-
Haley Stevens (MI-11)
Haley Stevens (D)
MI-11- Trump For President:
- 4.4
- Last Election Margin:
- 6.7%
- Current Outlook:
- 6.7%
Condemned Republican efforts to replace Obamacare with a free market health care system that would have cut costs, improved access and assured high-quality health care. Voted to override President Trump’s declaration of national emergency on the border.
-
Angie Craig (MN-02)
Angie Craig (D)
MN-02- Trump For President:
- 0.8
- Last Election Margin:
- 5.5%
- Current Outlook:
- 5.5%
Craig is a lesbian activist who ran for Congress because she and “her wife want their four boys to never give up on the American we can create together.”
-
Collin Peterson (MN-07)
Collin Peterson (D)
MN-07- Trump For President:
- 30.8
- Last Election Margin:
- 4.3%
- Current Outlook:
- 4.3%
Most Trump district in America currently represented by a Democrat.
-
Chris Pappas (NH-01)
-
Jeff Van Drew (NJ-02)
-
Andy Kim (NJ-03)
Andy Kim (D)
NJ-03- Trump For President:
- 6.2
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.3%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.3%
Co-sponsor of a measure that opposes a ban on openly transgender individuals in the Armed Forces.
-
Josh Gottheimer (NJ-05)
-
Tom Malinowski (NJ-07)
-
Mikie Sherrill (NJ-11)
-
Xochitl Torres Small (NM-02)
Xochitl Torres Small (D)
NM-02- Trump For President:
- 10.2
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.9%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.9%
One of the top 5 most vulnerable Democrats in Congress. Co-Authored legislation to override President Trump’s veto against his declaring a national emergency on the border.
-
Max Rose (NY-11)
Max Rose (D)
NY-11- Trump For President:
- 9.8
- Last Election Margin:
- 6.4%
- Current Outlook:
- 6.4%
Given the chance to stand up against anti-Semitic remarks by Congresswoman Ilhan Omar, Rose refused. A leader in the fight to ban a variety of guns and extend gun control.
-
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)
Anthony Brindisi (D)
NY-22- Trump For President:
- 15.1
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.8%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.8%
Top 5 most vulnerable Democrats in Congress. In an interview with DC journal Real Clear Politics, he said he wanted Medicare for all or single payer healthcare.
-
Antonio Delgado (NY-19)
Antonio Delgado (D)
(D)- Trump For President:
- 6.8
- Last Election Margin:
- 5.2%
- Current Outlook:
- 5.2%
A former rapper, and lawyer with the largest, richest, lobbying firm in America, Akin Gump. Delgado moved from New Jersey to the New York District in order to run for Congress. Among Delgado's clients was Keith Meister, a subsidiary of FriendFinder Networks, which owns more than 44,000 porn and hook-up websites around the globe.
-
Chris Collins (NY-27)
Chris Collins (D)
NY-27- Trump For President:
- 24.3
- Last Election Margin:
- -0.4%
- Current Outlook:
- -0.4%
Collins is a Republican that Democrats have made one of their top targets in 2020. Last election he won by only 0.4%
-
Susie Lee (NV-03)
-
Steven Horsford (NV-04)
-
Steven Horsford (NV-04)
-
Kendra Horn (OK-05)
Kendra Horn (D)
OK-05- Trump For President:
- 13.4
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.4%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.4%
Congresswoman Horn co-authored a measure that criticizes Donald Trump’s attempt to encourage courts to weigh in on whether the Affordable Care Act is constitutional. Also criticizes Trump for calling the crisis on the southern border an emergency. Horn is one of the top 5 most vulnerable Democrats in the country.
-
Susan Wild (PA-07)
-
Matt Cartwright (PA-08)
-
Conor Lamb (PA-17)
-
Joe Cunningham (SC-01)
Joe Cunningham (D)
SC-01- Trump For President:
- 13.1
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.4%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.4%
This state had been in Republican hands for nearly 40 years till 2018. This is a must win if Republicans are to recapture Congress.
-
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (TX-07)
Lizzie Pannill Fletcher (D)
TX-07- Trump For President:
- -1.4
- Last Election Margin:
- 5.1%
- Current Outlook:
- 5.1%
Fletcher is a leader in the fight against Trump’s immigration policies to stop the crisis on our southern border. She sees her election as a first vital step to turning Texas into a Democrat state.
-
Colin Allred (TX-32)
Colin Allred (D)
TX-32- Trump For President:
- -1.9
- Last Election Margin:
- 6.5%
- Current Outlook:
- 6.5%
Leading the fight to prohibit employees of companies from contributing in campaigns, but allow unions to force contributions from members.
-
Elaine Luria (VA-02)
Elaine Luria (D)
VA-02- Trump For President:
- 3.4
- Last Election Margin:
- 2.2%
- Current Outlook:
- 2.2%
VA 2 is a district that regularly changes hands between parties. Luria is an advocate for strict gun control.
-
Abigail Spanberger (VA-07)
Abigail Spanberger (D)
VA-07- Trump For President:
- 6.5
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.9%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.9%
Supports amnesty for immigrants here illegally.
-
Ben McAdams (UT-04)
Ben McAdams (D)
UT-04- Trump For President:
- 6.7
- Last Election Margin:
- 0.3%
- Current Outlook:
- 0.3%
One of the most Republican districts in the country now represented by Democrat McAdams. He was voted most liberal member of the Utah Senate by the Salt Lake Tribune before his election to Congress.
Senate Races 2020
Trump won by double digits, where Democrats won by less than two points. Below are 7 of the most vulnerable Democrat seats in 2020.
-
Doug Jones (AL)
Doug Jones (D)
AL- Trump For President:
- 28
- Last Election Margin:
- 1.7%
- Current Outlook:
- 1.7%
Doug Jones won by a squeaker against the embattled Roy Moore who had been accused of immoral sexual conduct.
-
Martha McSally (AZ)
Martha McSally (D)
AZ- Trump For President:
- 4
- Last Election Margin:
- Appointed
- Current Outlook:
- Appointed
McSally served in the USAF from 1988 to 2010 and rose to the rank of colonel before retiring. One of the highest-ranking female pilots in the history of the Air Force. McSally lost the 2018 Senate race to Kyrsten Sinema by 48% to 50%, but was subsequently appointed by Arizona's Governor to fill the vacancy left when Jon Kyl resigned. Democrats have targeted her for defeat in 2020.
-
Cory Gardner (CO)
Cory Gardner (D)
CO- Trump For President:
- 4.9
- Last Election Margin:
- 2
- Current Outlook:
- 2
Gardner is the last Republican holding statewide office in Colorado. Democrats announced the conservative Gardner would be their number 1 target for defeat in the U.S. Senate in 2020. We need to hold on to this seat.
-
Susan Collins (ME)
Susan Collins (R)
ME- Trump For President:
- -2.9
- Last Election Margin:
- 36.8
- Current Outlook:
- 36.8
Collins has mused that she might not run for re- election making Maine a critical switch state for Democrats and hold for Republicans.
-
Tina Smith (MN)
Tina Smith (D)
MN- Trump For President:
- Last Election Margin:
- 11
- Current Outlook:
- 11
Smith blames Trump for the crisis on our southern border due to his not adequately providing foreign aid to central America.
-
Gary Peters (MI)
Gary Peters (D)
MI- Trump For President:
- Last Election Margin:
- 13.3
- Current Outlook:
- 13.3
Peters was elected partly thanks to the fundraising help by ultra-left Senator Elizabeth Warren.
-
Jeanne Shaheen (NH)
Jeanne Shaheen (D)
NH- Trump For President:
- -0.3
- Last Election Margin:
- 3
- Current Outlook:
- 3
As a leader in the fight to pass Obamacare, Shaheen first promised people if they liked their current health care plans they could keep them. Later she said it was really only true “if they were willing to pay more.” She’s criticized Trump for not releasing his tax returns, but for more than 18 years in politics she’s refused to release her returns. Shaheen also served as the national chair for John Kerry’s 204 presidential campaign.
Funding Breakdown for Radio & Digital Media
Radio Will be the Best Bang for the Buck
In strategic messaging in selected markets with radio will offer the best cost to value.
Poughkeepsie
$5,000
NY District 18
NY District 19
Cedar Rapids
$5,000
IA District 1
IA District 2
Maine
$5,000
ME District 2
ME Senate
Minneapolis
$25,000
MN District 2
MN District 3
MN District 8
MN Senate
When Radio is Cost Prohibitive
Targeted messaging via digital channels will be used when using radio is cost prohibitive.
Arizona
$3,000/wk
AZ District 01
AZ District 02
AZ Senate
California
$4,500/wk
CA District 10
CA District 39
CA District 45
Illinois
$5,000/wk
IL District 6
IL District 13
IL District 14
IL District 17
New York
$4,500/wk
NY District 22
NY District 24
NY District 27
Virginia
$3,500/wk
VA District 2
VA District 7
Faces of America
Together, marching towards greatness!